Archive Siberian Research, 2019, 1, (1)  >  Global forecast

Global forecast of the consequences of climate warming in the Northern hemisphere 


D.G. Tikhonov, V.A. Vladimirtsev


     An international team of researchers from Finland, Norway and the United States claims that nearly four million people and 70% of the existing permafrost infrastructure are in areas with high prospect of defrosting of its active layers by the middle of the 21st century as a result of climate warming. The authors declare that even achieving the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement will not significantly reduce the predicted effects. The data are available in the article «Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century» published in the journal «Nature Communications» on December 11, 2018.



1. Hjort J., Karjalainen O., Aalto J., Westermann S., Romanovsky V.E., Nelson F.E., Etzelmüller B., Luoto M. Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century // Nature Communications. 2018. 9 (1).  DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4. 

2. Anderegg W.R., Prall J.W., Harold J., Schneider S.H. Expert credibility in climate change // Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Jul 6. 107 (27):12107-9. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1003187107.

3. RIA News. The scientist told how to change the lives of Russians due to global warming. 3 November 2018, 03: 24. html. Access 10.02.2019 G.